Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a70…cb6f other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$28
politics 25% −$18
sports 19% −$10
crypto 7% −$7
finance 6% −$5
world 3% −$7
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 123 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 150 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 124
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage110d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 20 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $60 $0 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $62 −$2 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $144 −$2 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$2 -4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $85 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $302 −$2 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $27 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $377 −$2 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $110 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $50 2h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $51 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $48 14h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 96¢ $48 14h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 97¢ $42 21h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 97¢ $1 21h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 97¢ $5 21h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 22h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 38h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $55 39h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $55 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $50 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $66 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.60 · official $49.60 (match) · 549 history records