Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a6a…587f other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$16 (+8%) realized +$9 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$18
sports 17% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +48.4% +34.3% 100% 100% +35.6%
≤30d 5 +48.4% +34.3% 100% 100% +35.6%
≤90d 5 +48.4% +34.3% 100% 100% +35.6%
all 5 +48.4% +34.3% 100% 100% +35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 100% +35.6%
10% +21.4% 80% +22.7%
15% +9.7% 60% +10.8%
20% -1.1% 40% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 81¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $47 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $25 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 43h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 43h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.52 · official $135.53 (match) · 25 history records