Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a69…0108 crypto 987 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$584 (+4%) realized +$584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%523W / 464L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days−$287
14 days+$42
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$218
sports 2% −$40
other 1% −$9
world 0% +$50
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -2.1% -11.5% 51% 46% -12.7%
≤30d 819 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 47% -11.5%
≤90d 987 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 50% -8.3%
all 987 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 50% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 49% -17.0%
15% -22.7% 45% -25.1%
20% -30.3% 41% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses523 / 464
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)987 / 987
History coverage51d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 987 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$17 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$40 +77%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$197 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $253 +$63 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2480 history records