Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a67…c1ea world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-2%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
other 27% −$36
politics 24% −$3
sports 10% −$9
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 68 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 1% -9.6%
all 82 -7.0% -15.8% 35% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 4% -11.5%
10% -23.9% 2% -20.0%
15% -31.3% 2% -27.7%
20% -38.0% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage528d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $24 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 28 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 65¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $30 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $30 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.11 · official $1.54 (match) · 274 history records