Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a64…4073 sports 76 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-7%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%37W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$14
sports 34% +$5
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 56% -1.0%
≤30d 59 -3.0% -12.3% 63% 51% -16.1%
≤90d 59 -3.0% -12.3% 63% 51% -16.1%
all 59 -3.0% -12.3% 63% 51% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 51% -16.1%
10% -20.7% 31% -24.1%
15% -28.3% 25% -31.5%
20% -35.4% 17% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses37 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)59 / 76
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +126%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +111%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $2 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $0 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $2 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 47¢ $1 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports $0 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY 25¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 27¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 17¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 13¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 55¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 53¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.22 · official $16.22 (match) · 174 history records