Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
7A 0x7a61…af24 other 878 markets active 50d ago coverage 312d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Covers last 312d only
Total PnL +$225,054 (+48%) realized +$202,438 · open +$22,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +161% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +126% what you keep after slip
Net edge+126%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%341W / 496L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$115,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,995
7 days−$2,995
14 days−$2,995
30 days−$2,995
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$8,028
other 27% +$43,139
world 20% +$23,415
tech 7% +$23,892
crypto 3% +$2,691
culture 3% +$1,273
sports 3% +$6,450
economics 2% +$6,334
finance 1% +$4,018
weather 0% −$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+135.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -98.6% -98.8% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤30d 16 -98.6% -98.8% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤90d 124 +134.6% +112.3% 50% 50% +18.2%
all 837 +160.6% +135.8% 41% 40% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +135.8% 40% +11.1%
10% +113.3% 39% +0.5%
15% +92.7% 38% -9.2%
20% +73.8% 38% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +161% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$666) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +165% → late +156% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$862 vs −$406 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$115,652
Realized+$202,438
Unrealized+$22,616
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses341 / 496
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions59
Markets (closed)837 / 878
History coverage312d ⚠
Avg bet$531
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $11,000 $18,678 +$7,678 (+70%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 37¢ 98¢ $2,249 $5,926 +$3,677 (+164%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 30¢ 84¢ $1,808 $5,033 +$3,225 (+178%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 12¢ 84¢ $625 $4,520 +$3,895 (+623%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $2,850 $4,314 +$1,464 (+51%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $11,000 $3,322 −$7,678 (-70%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 No 41¢ 88¢ $1,396 $2,980 +$1,584 (+113%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 34¢ 99¢ $841 $2,433 +$1,592 (+189%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 90¢ $846 $2,394 +$1,547 (+183%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 25¢ 88¢ $663 $2,319 +$1,657 (+250%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 37¢ 76¢ $1,112 $2,300 +$1,187 (+107%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 28¢ 68¢ $900 $2,202 +$1,302 (+145%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 25¢ 73¢ $629 $1,836 +$1,207 (+192%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 24¢ 52¢ $743 $1,625 +$882 (+119%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 29¢ 64¢ $636 $1,395 +$759 (+119%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No 16¢ 100¢ $173 $1,107 +$934 (+541%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $602 $1,069 +$467 (+78%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 76¢ 99¢ $739 $959 +$221 (+30%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 44¢ 99¢ $410 $923 +$513 (+125%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 29¢ 90¢ $271 $845 +$575 (+212%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 17¢ 50¢ $253 $739 +$486 (+192%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 25¢ 72¢ $256 $732 +$476 (+186%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No 38¢ 99¢ $275 $717 +$442 (+161%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 14¢ 72¢ $138 $697 +$560 (+407%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 2¢ 83¢ $12 $668 +$656 (+5423%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US recession in 2025? Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? Jun 15 $98 −$76 -78%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 15 $42 +$76 +183%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $64 +$41 +64%
Megan Thee Stallion & Klay Thompson split in 2026? Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 24 $1,811 −$1,811 -100%
Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $25 +$74 +300%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 21 $0 +$10 +9900%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 21 $1 +$13 +999%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 21 $185 +$289 +156%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before Apr 20 $302 −$302 -100%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? Apr 19 $914 −$914 -100%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 18 $151 −$151 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 17 $1,387 +$1,916 +138%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Apr 17 $608 −$608 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $97 +$308 +317%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1,639 +$1,513 +92%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 15 $401 −$401 -100%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $2,237 −$2,237 -100%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Valencia finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Apr 12 $0 +$3 +5163%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 12 $1,391 +$1,659 +119%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 12 $3,283 +$4,013 +122%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 12 $2,775 +$3,833 +138%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 11 $260 +$670 +258%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $606 −$606 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 10 $751 −$751 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 10 $283 +$422 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $64 50d
Megan Thee Stallion & Klay Thompson split in 2026? BUY No 1¢ $30 50d
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 50d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $1,511 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $15 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $47 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $28 51d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $30 51d
Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 51d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 25¢ $25 52d
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $9 54d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $70 54d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $235 54d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $35 54d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $74 54d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $1,088 54d
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before BUY No 5¢ $302 55d
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? BUY No 29¢ $914 56d
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 57d
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? BUY No 3¢ $151 57d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? BUY No 42¢ $669 58d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? BUY No 42¢ $718 58d
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 58d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 9¢ $608 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115,651.97 · official $115,652.54 (match) · 3500 history records