Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a5d…54db other 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1049 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$90,397 (+58%) realized +$90,773 · open −$376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%147W / 150L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day1049.2pace
Fees−$1,010est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$16,121
sports 34% −$2,275
world 6% −$226
crypto 4% +$174
culture 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1049 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+107.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 +129.1% +107.3% 49% 33% +1.1%
≤30d 297 +129.1% +107.3% 49% 33% +1.1%
≤90d 297 +129.1% +107.3% 49% 33% +1.1%
all 297 +129.1% +107.3% 49% 33% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1049.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +107.3% 33% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here +87.5% 28% -8.6%
15% +69.4% 25% -17.4%
20% +52.8% 20% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +176% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$69 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized+$90,773
Unrealized−$376
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses147 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,010
Open positions10
Markets (closed)297 / 271
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$576
Trades / day1049.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $305 $399 +$94 (+31%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 90¢ 91¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 86¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 84¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 69¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 29¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? No 88¢ 0¢ $378 $0 −$378 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +197%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $0 +$19 +3933%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Slovenia 0 - 1 Cyprus? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Boulter vs. Vekic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $189 −$11 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2,179 −$206 -9%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $387 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $367 −$91 -25%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $689 −$25 -4%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $300 −$52 -18%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $700 +$78 +11%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $94 −$76 -82%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $70 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,425 −$36 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $276 +$42 +15%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $383 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $422 −$39 -9%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $956 −$71 -7%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $217 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $432 −$127 -30%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 88¢ $110 13m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $184 14m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 93¢ $161 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 23m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 85¢ $340 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 26m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 76¢ $306 26m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 26m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 26m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $58 26m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 26m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $49 26m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 27m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 92¢ $35 27m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $405 27m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 88¢ $245 28m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $70 29m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 82¢ $40 30m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 30m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 31m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 31m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 74¢ $32 31m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 33m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 83¢ $9 33m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 92¢ $5 33m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $905.59 · official $858.98 · 3500 history records