Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7A 0x7a5b…82ad crypto 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%92W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$86
other 2% −$10
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +22.4% +10.8% 57% 57% -16.3%
≤30d 35 +22.4% +10.8% 57% 57% -16.3%
≤90d 214 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 35% -13.5%
all 214 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 35% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 35% -13.5%
10% -24.3% 26% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 19% -29.3%
20% -38.3% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11.560800739460571% → late -3.2742690757373216% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses92 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)214 / 219
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$17 +331%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 28 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Torino FC 3 - 1 FC Internazionale Milano? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 24 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 24 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 24 $8 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.27 · official $36.27 (match) · 1232 history records