Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a57…968c sports 611 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,869 (-1%) realized −$1,639 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%249W / 366L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$2,873est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$7,203
other 2% +$339
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 57 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 615 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 36% -14.5%
all 615 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 36% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 36% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 34% -22.7%
15% -33.3% 32% -30.2%
20% -39.8% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$142 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$1,639
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses249 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,873
Open positions3
Markets (closed)615 / 611
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 52¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 48¢ 10¢ $95 $20 −$75 (-79%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 240 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $57 −$132 -232%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Power Rangers (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group B Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 18 $103 −$9 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$5 -5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $206 −$15 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 +$255 +216%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $111 +$89 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $156 +$144 +92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $167 −$166 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $151 −$148 -99%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 15 $104 +$226 +216%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $98 +$142 +144%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $104 −$103 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $105 +$95 +91%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $109 +$91 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $105 −$104 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $209 −$72 -35%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $103 −$101 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $205 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $103 +$137 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $211 +$189 +89%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $104 −$103 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $111 +$89 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $156 +$174 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $105 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$4 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$9 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $103 +$9 +8%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $255 +$93 +36%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $104 +$236 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $97 46m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 48¢ $95 52m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $153 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $101 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $97 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $98 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $105 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $102 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $118 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 36¢ $93 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $102 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $98 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $122 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $100 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $11 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $90 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 51¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 36¢ $101 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 43¢ $52 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 57¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.40 · official $114.40 (match) · 3500 history records