Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7A 0x7a57…ac32 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+2%) realized +$154 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$389
7 days−$41
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$9
other 42% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +10.8% +0.2% 48% 48% -11.1%
≤30d 73 +10.1% -0.4% 49% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 73 +10.1% -0.4% 49% 49% -8.7%
all 73 +10.1% -0.4% 49% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 49% -8.7%
10% -9.9% 49% -17.5%
15% -18.6% 48% -25.5%
20% -26.6% 44% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$33 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage11d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ 10¢ $29 $11 −$18 (-63%)
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals Yes 15¢ 4¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-70%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 6¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-87%)
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 1¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists Jun 25 $34 +$85 +250%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $43 −$42 -98%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 25 $17 +$60 +344%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 24 $24 +$22 +89%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $16 +$27 +165%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $393 −$393 -100%
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Harry Kane: 5+ shots Jun 23 $173 −$173 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $272 +$118 +44%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Jun 23 $20 −$15 -74%
João Félix: 1+ assists Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $14 +$21 +146%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $21 −$3 -15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $18 −$3 -18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $21 −$18 -84%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $22 +$14 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $24 +$23 +97%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots Jun 23 $174 +$168 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $33 +$22 +66%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$77 +365%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $34 +$38 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 +$76 +226%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $55 +$14 +26%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots Jun 21 $33 +$27 +83%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 21 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $24 +$10 +41%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $7 +$7 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $41 +$60 +146%
Bouzkova vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $47 +$39 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $14 +$16 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $30 1h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $30 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $29 1h
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $30 1h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $34 5h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $43 5h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $17 27h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $30 27h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $41 27h
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 100¢ $46 27h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $16 29h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $35 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $43 29h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $393 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $272 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY Yes 48¢ $173 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 42¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $3 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $14 2d
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $12 2d
João Félix: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $21 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.03 · official $25.74 · 151 history records