Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a56…5e38 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$698 (+11%) realized +$703 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$275
14 days+$96
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,415
sports 30% +$1,303
crypto 10% +$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.8% +0.2% 44% 44% -7.5%
≤30d 18 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% +3.4%
≤90d 18 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% +3.4%
all 18 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 50% +3.4%
10% +8.0% 50% -6.5%
15% -2.4% 50% -15.5%
20% -12.0% 50% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$251 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$703
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage18d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 30¢ $302 $297 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$152 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $420 −$266 -63%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $476 +$340 +71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $94 +$383 +408%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $331 −$231 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,089 −$759 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $641 +$449 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $609 −$380 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $278 −$271 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $238 +$136 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 −$155 -91%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $203 +$174 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $331 +$348 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $175 −$172 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $156 +$371 +238%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $149 +$246 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $308 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $295 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $305 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $352 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $167 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $154 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $420 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $476 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $477 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 19¢ $94 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $94 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $331 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $330 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,089 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,090 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $641 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $215 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $70 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $208 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $374 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $238 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL 4¢ $15 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $170 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $377 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.13 · official $297.13 (match) · 40 history records