Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a55…6ce4
world · 78 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
−$259 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$427 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge
Net worth$9
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses51 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage135d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days+$291
14 days+$387
30 days−$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 10¢ 66¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+560%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 50¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $675 −$108 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $355 −$22 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $276 +$95 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $467 +$189 +40%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 09 $6 +$11 +186%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $250 +$135 +54%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 05 $90 −$90 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $145 +$119 +82%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $0 +$1 +900%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $0 +$1 +900%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? Jun 02 $0 +$1 +900%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +300%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $19 +$60 +317%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $210 +$104 +50%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 09 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? May 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? May 09 $29 +$2 +8%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 09 $164 +$34 +21%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? May 09 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? May 09 $54 +$3 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 09 $172 +$80 +46%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? May 07 $205 +$36 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $1,195 +$248 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $1,237 −$42 -3%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? May 05 $60 +$49 +82%
Trump announces US troop reduction in Germany by May 15? May 02 $156 +$63 +40%
Blockx vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 May 01 $50 $0 +1%
Blockx vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 01 $304 +$4 +1%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) May 01 $242 +$215 +89%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $275 +$14 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $217 +$34 +16%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $0 +$1 +178%
Major US official out by April 30? May 01 $4 +$10 +233%
Clavicular unbanned from Youtube by April 30? May 01 $423 +$72 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $333 +$64 +19%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli May 01 $1,520 −$695 -46%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx May 01 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? May 01 $0 +$2 +400%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $23 +$8 +33%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? May 01 $98 +$11 +12%
Comey posts a video message on substack again by Friday? Apr 30 $191 −$108 -57%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $306 −$137 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $250 +$256 +102%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% +$1,608
sports 18% −$872
weather 8% −$1,529
tech 8% +$245
politics 5% +$284
other 5% −$171
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $149 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $418 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $99 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $196 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $34 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $26 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $11 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $309 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $93 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $357 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 85¢ $656 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $21 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 74¢ $14 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 74¢ $166 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 42¢ $30 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 74¢ $96 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 64¢ $194 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 64¢ $139 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 59¢ $170 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 59¢ $66 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 67¢ $201 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 57% +5.9%
≤30d 18 +186.0% +158.7% 67% 67% -30.5%
≤90d 73 +85.6% +68.0% 66% 55% -15.2%
all 76 +83.8% +66.3% 67% 55% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.3% 55% -11.2%
10% +50.4% 42% -19.7%
15% +35.9% 34% -27.5%
20% +22.6% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.34 · official $9.34 (match) · 455 history records