Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a52…1d28 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-3%) realized −$83 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate77%75W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$114
other 24% +$23
politics 8% +$4
economics 7% −$1
world 5% −$5
finance 4% +$12
tech 3% +$1
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.1% -23.2% 0% 0% -23.2%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 38 +7.0% -3.2% 76% 26% -3.4%
all 97 -3.7% -12.9% 77% 18% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 18% -13.2%
10% -21.2% 7% -21.5%
15% -28.8% 6% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 3% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses75 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)97 / 126
History coverage264d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 98¢ 95¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 57¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $18 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $29 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $21 +$2 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $16 +$3 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $15 +$2 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 02 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +3%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $15 +$10 +69%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $31 +$14 +47%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $26 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $26 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 26 $25 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 26 $23 +$3 +14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $23 +$4 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 26 $25 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 18 $11 $0 -2%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $45 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $47 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $48 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.67 · official $69.99 · 369 history records