Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a51…1e9f
crypto · 23 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$121 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$128 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$128
14 days−$128
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 39¢ 50¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$49 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$48 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$108
other 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $44 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 35m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $43 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 36% -26.3%
≤30d 22 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 36% -26.3%
≤90d 22 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 36% -26.3%
all 22 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 36% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 36% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -33.4%
15% -32.9% 27% -39.8%
20% -39.5% 27% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.37 · official $32.37 (match) · 48 history records