Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a49…ac2e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+6%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$23
other 45% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 29% -3.7%
≤30d 7 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 29% -3.7%
≤90d 7 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 29% -3.7%
all 7 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 29% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 29% -3.7%
10% -13.2% 0% -12.9%
15% -21.6% 0% -21.3%
20% -29.3% 0% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $140 +$4 +3%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $122 +$18 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $119 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $106 +$11 +11%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 97¢ $140 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 5h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $122 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $122 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 97¢ $119 8h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $106 26h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 2d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records