trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 67% | 67% | +40.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +22.6% | +10.9% | 60% | 60% | +42.8% |
| all | 22 | +7.6% | -2.6% | 64% | 64% | -14.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.6% | 64% | -14.6% |
| 10% | -12.0% | 45% | -22.8% |
| 15% | -20.5% | 45% | -30.3% |
| 20% | -28.3% | 36% | -37.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 82¢ | 78¢ | $91 | $86 | −$5 (-5%) |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 35¢ | 36¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | Jun 15 | $9 | −$9 | -98% |
| Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Nguyen Tan | Jun 15 | $8 | +$1 | +16% |
| New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals | Jun 15 | $47 | +$43 | +90% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 01 | $44 | −$7 | -16% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 29 | $53 | +$65 | +124% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 05 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Hornets | Mar 05 | $61 | +$44 | +72% |
| Grizzlies vs. Pelicans | Jan 30 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Senators vs. Predators | Jan 30 | $62 | +$65 | +104% |
| Lightning vs. Flyers | Jan 10 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Hornets | Jan 07 | $384 | −$384 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Islanders | Jan 07 | $188 | +$196 | +104% |
| Bruins vs. Flames | Jan 01 | $103 | +$85 | +82% |
| Canucks vs. Flyers | Dec 29 | $127 | +$96 | +75% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Dec 22 | $71 | +$56 | +79% |
| Golden Knights vs. Islanders | Dec 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Raptors | Dec 04 | $104 | −$104 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Spurs | Dec 04 | $137 | +$67 | +49% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? | Dec 02 | $6 | +$3 | +45% |
| Bowling vs. UMass | Dec 02 | $110 | +$18 | +16% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 22? | Nov 25 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | Nov 25 | $96 | +$14 | +15% |