trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $75 | −$1 | -1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $22 | −$1 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? | May 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? | Apr 28 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 28 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? | Apr 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 25 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 25 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Apr 24 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| 2025 March hottest on record? | Apr 11 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Apr 03 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Apr 03 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crystal Palace be relegated? | Mar 31 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 31 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in March? | Mar 29 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 20% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 20% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 20% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 25 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 36% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 0% | -33.5% |