Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a42…24d1 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+3%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%74W / 36L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$121
crypto 5% −$33
weather 3% +$14
world 2% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.4% -0.1% 75% 75% +7.5%
≤30d 37 +2.4% -7.3% 70% 62% -11.9%
≤90d 107 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 57% -5.6%
all 110 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 56% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 56% -5.8%
10% -16.8% 37% -14.9%
15% -24.8% 22% -23.1%
20% -32.2% 15% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses74 / 36
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage119d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $37 +$26 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $45 −$27 -59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$2 -47%
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$6 +38%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 23 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner May 23 $90 −$70 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $70 +$4 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Sto May 22 $91 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner May 22 $30 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste May 22 $60 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Conquest of Prague May 22 $39 +$23 +58%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner May 22 $111 −$44 -39%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT Sou May 22 $40 +$7 +17%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 22 $20 +$6 +30%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner May 22 $15 +$8 +51%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winner May 22 $19 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner May 22 $30 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner May 22 $15 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Diamant Esports - Map 2 Winner May 22 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner May 22 $242 −$95 -39%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom Stor May 21 $66 +$18 +28%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 21 $101 +$30 +29%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys - Map 1 Winner May 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 21 $60 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Oldboys (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage May 21 $15 +$5 +31%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $24 −$8 -32%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 21 $40 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 20 $20 +$4 +22%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $71 +$6 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $56 +$19 +33%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $40 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $35 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $30 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 19 $65 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $37 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 83¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 85¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $15 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $20 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $15 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $20 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $15 10h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 15¢ $3 25h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 28¢ $5 25h
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY 555 72¢ $15 34h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL DRX Academy 99¢ $14 37h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY DRX Academy 70¢ $10 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $16 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 8¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $7 27d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $0 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY ALGO Esports 86¢ $40 27d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY ALGO Esports 83¢ $30 27d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL fnatic 22¢ $6 27d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 76¢ $20 27d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters SELL Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $21 27d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters BUY Inner Circle Esports 69¢ $15 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records