Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7A 0x7a41…20bd sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+12%) realized +$312 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$63
14 days+$245
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$338
other 16% −$111
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.8% -5.2% 35% 35% -16.3%
≤30d 79 +16.0% +5.0% 51% 51% +1.4%
≤90d 79 +16.0% +5.0% 51% 51% +1.4%
all 79 +16.0% +5.0% 51% 51% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 51% +1.4%
10% -5.1% 51% -8.3%
15% -14.2% 47% -17.2%
20% -22.6% 37% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$312
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage14d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$25 +81%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$13 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$23 -75%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$31 +100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$19 +95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $41 +$28 +70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$36 +71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$86 +1666%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$26 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$25 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$28 +139%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 +$25 +61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $55 29m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $30 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 30¢ $20 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $50 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $30 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 39h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 11¢ $8 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $31 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $30 43h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $30 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $20 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 47¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.44 · official $167.28 (match) · 179 history records