Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a3d…9351 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+9%) realized +$473 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 59L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$58
14 days−$18
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$466
other 9% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +9.7% -0.7% 47% 47% -1.0%
≤30d 56 +11.1% +0.6% 52% 52% +4.4%
≤90d 118 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -1.4%
all 118 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 50% -1.4%
10% -16.0% 48% -10.8%
15% -24.1% 47% -19.4%
20% -31.5% 46% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$34 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$473
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 59
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage69d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ 57¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $37 −$17 -45%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $76 −$23 -31%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $23 +$9 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $23 −$22 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$12 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 +$23 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $121 +$75 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $71 +$33 +46%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$2 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $46 −$45 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $8 +$17 +216%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 +$26 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $8 +$10 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$8 +137%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$21 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$11 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $115 +$120 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $71 +$106 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $111 +$82 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 +$8 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 −$37 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$7 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $8 −$7 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $8 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $15 +$14 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $15 +$30 +194%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $61 +$63 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $53 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $23 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $15 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 51¢ $15 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $23 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $15 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $15 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 11¢ $4 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2 BUY 32¢ $8 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $30 5d
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 SELL Over 54¢ $13 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $91 6d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $71 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $20 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $30 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $14 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 6d
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 56¢ $46 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecua BUY 33¢ $15 6d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 54¢ $44 7d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $76 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $8 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 42¢ $8 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.21 · official $40.58 · 249 history records