Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a3b…2138 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,204 (-13%) realized −$158 · open −$11,046
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 33L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,092per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$7,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$53
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$11,578
sports 2% +$614
other 1% +$83
culture 0% −$130
politics 0% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +241.1% +208.6% 100% 100% +198.2%
≤30d 5 +107.0% +87.3% 100% 80% +88.6%
≤90d 19 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 37% -79.8%
all 76 +1.1% -8.6% 57% 45% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 45% -9.7%
10% -17.3% 39% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 28% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 20% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$119 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$7,310
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$11,046
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage514d
Avg bet$1,092
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $14,572 $7,053 −$7,519 (-52%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $3,780 $251 −$3,529 (-93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 +$11 +94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $16 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3 +$1 +31%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $131 −$130 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $765 −$442 -58%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $1 +$3 +178%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$2 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $102 −$94 -92%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $101 −$99 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $894 −$894 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 09 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Boxing: Lopez vs. Stevenson Feb 01 $51 +$17 +34%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $40 +$27 +66%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $71 +$20 +28%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $49 +$22 +45%
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $41 +$5 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $100 +$27 +27%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $299 +$154 +52%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $184 +$65 +35%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $138 +$47 +34%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $127 +$11 +9%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 +$27 +270%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $451 +$67 +15%
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $100 +$337 +337%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $10 +$4 +45%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Volkov vs. Almeida Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Nov 24 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 24 $215 −$115 -54%
UFC Fight Night: Sola vs. McKee Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $10 +$5 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $5 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $2 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2 21d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 28d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 28d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 33d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 34d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $131 36d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 42d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 43d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 43d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 43d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 43d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, SELL Carlos Prates 100¢ $10 43d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 52¢ $5 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,310.14 · official $7,310.14 (match) · 571 history records