Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7A 0x7a3a…269f sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$523 (+18%) realized +$472 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$313
14 days+$243
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$742
other 37% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -18.3% -26.1% 38% 38% +11.0%
≤30d 64 -17.7% -25.6% 36% 34% +12.8%
≤90d 64 -17.7% -25.6% 36% 34% +12.8%
all 64 -17.7% -25.6% 36% 34% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 34% +12.8%
10% -32.7% 34% +2.0%
15% -39.2% 33% -7.8%
20% -45.2% 27% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$21 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage24d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $70 $87 +$17 (+24%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 57¢ 96¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+66%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $297 +$209 +70%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$10 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$18 +44%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $56 −$55 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$6 -12%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $384 +$366 +95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$26 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$20 +129%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$110 +72%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $147 −$145 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$30 +29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 57¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $196 7h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 38¢ $51 7h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 57¢ $101 8h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $5 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 45¢ $5 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $5 26h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 1¢ $1 26h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 4¢ $2 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $10 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 26h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 53¢ $56 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 37h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 31¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 7¢ $5 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 2¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 43¢ $45 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.99 · official $379.24 · 122 history records