Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7A 0x7a37…6c95 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$8,752 (+86%) realized +$9,001 · open −$249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 47L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$85
30 days+$6,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$8,747
other 7% −$283
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 +49.3% +35.1% 20% 20% +184.0%
≤90d 32 +16.5% +5.4% 19% 19% +141.5%
all 63 +21.8% +10.2% 25% 22% +71.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 22% +71.1%
10% -0.3% 22% +54.8%
15% -10.0% 22% +39.8%
20% -18.8% 22% +26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +167% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$793 vs −$85 · ×9.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9,001
Unrealized−$249
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 47
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage191d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $517 −$83 -16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $154 −$150 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $105 −$102 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $24 −$23 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $51 +$403 +785%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $126 −$123 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $75 −$73 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $102 +$210 +206%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $24 +$206 +874%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $102 −$5 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $20 −$19 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $34 −$33 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,192 +$6,449 +541%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $112 −$5 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 26 $102 +$354 +345%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $202 −$197 -97%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Anastasia Zakharova May 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $100 +$195 +196%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $27 −$26 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 12 $24 −$23 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 17 $90 −$88 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Apr 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Mar 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 21 $420 −$420 -100%
Miami Open: Paula Badosa vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Mar 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $200 +$407 +204%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 15 $50 +$82 +163%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 15 $140 −$140 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Mar 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Hersonissos: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Menelaos Efstathiou Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 28 $1,500 +$1,502 +100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 28 $357 $0 +0%
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Daria Kasatki Feb 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elena Rybakina Feb 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $102 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $154 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $422 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 5¢ $51 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 10¢ $51 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $51 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 5¢ $51 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $53 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 12¢ $24 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 11¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 39¢ $102 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 3¢ $24 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 22¢ $102 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 5¢ $24 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 13¢ $51 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 32¢ $102 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 8¢ $51 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 10¢ $24 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar SELL Alex Michelsen 24¢ $93 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Alex Michelsen 25¢ $102 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Magda Linette 3¢ $20 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Nuno Borges 26¢ $102 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 4¢ $34 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 17¢ $102 28d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $102 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 58¢ $1,013 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.70 (match) · 128 history records