Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a32…c355
politics · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$76 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$163
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage179d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $55 $65 +$11 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 46¢ 44¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 +$13 +34%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? May 12 $85 −$84 -99%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $59 +$18 +31%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $38 −$13 -35%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $30 −$6 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 11 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $30 −$7 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 59% −$16
finance 16% −$84
other 11% +$18
tech 10% −$2
world 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 46¢ $52 50m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $52 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 32d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 32d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 32d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? SELL Down 97¢ $78 32d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 32d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 33d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Down 74¢ $37 33d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Down 74¢ $22 33d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 33d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 33d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 33d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 33d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 44d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 44d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $25 50d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 50d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 50d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 26¢ $32 50d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 50d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 50d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 50d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 87d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 158d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 168d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +33.6% +20.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤30d 1 +33.6% +20.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤90d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 33% -28.9%
all 10 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 30% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 30% -29.0%
10% -27.4% 30% -35.8%
15% -34.5% 0% -42.0%
20% -40.9% 0% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.85 · official $162.85 (match) · 213 history records