Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a30…8abd sports 1004 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,955 (+3%) realized +$18,794 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%537W / 458L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$594per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2,449est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,848
7 days+$536
14 days+$3,419
30 days−$29,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$18,692
other 0% −$723
world 0% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +2.6% -7.1% 55% 55% -8.1%
≤30d 265 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 50% -26.6%
≤90d 408 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% -22.6%
all 995 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 54% -6.8%
10% -15.8% 54% -15.7%
15% -23.9% 54% -23.9%
20% -31.4% 54% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$750) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$537 vs −$591 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$3,999
Realized+$18,794
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses537 / 458
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,449
Open positions9
Markets (closed)995 / 1004
History coverage245d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 995 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 80¢ $637 $915 +$279 (+44%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 51¢ $793 $786 −$6 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 54¢ $585 $580 −$5 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ 60¢ $450 $446 −$4 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 54¢ $468 $411 −$58 (-12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 52¢ $351 $341 −$10 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $260 $258 −$3 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees No 57¢ 50¢ $266 $234 −$33 (-12%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $571 +$493 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $555 +$498 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $361 +$260 +72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $290 +$287 +99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $420 +$295 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $420 +$295 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $573 +$494 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $573 +$494 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $550 −$542 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $573 −$566 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $643 −$634 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $579 +$493 +85%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $356 +$294 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $590 +$493 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $388 +$296 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $676 +$494 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $672 −$663 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $643 −$633 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $619 −$610 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $220 −$217 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $619 +$491 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $356 +$294 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $666 +$535 +80%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $674 +$493 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $675 +$558 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $743 +$656 +88%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $344 −$339 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $569 −$562 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $578 +$491 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $590 +$550 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $344 +$296 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $570 +$490 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $593 +$491 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $529 +$493 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $318 +$297 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $593 +$491 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $671 −$663 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $323 +$297 +92%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $928 −$916 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $922 +$739 +80%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $639 +$488 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $594 +$493 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $529 −$521 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $573 −$566 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $690 −$681 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $230 −$226 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $238 −$235 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $404 −$399 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 24m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $324 34m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $480 36m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $264 46m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $455 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $593 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $550 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $573 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $474 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $420 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $290 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $361 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $609 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $305 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $550 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $519 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 52¢ $52 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $420 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $346 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $299 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $573 25h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $573 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $644 36h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $301 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $342 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,999.26 · official $3,999.26 (match) · 2118 history records