Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a2f…5468 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$194 (-34%) realized −$136 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$20
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$202
sports 43% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 33% 33% -16.0%
≤30d 16 +4.4% -5.6% 31% 31% -25.2%
≤90d 16 +4.4% -5.6% 31% 31% -25.2%
all 16 +4.4% -5.6% 31% 31% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 31% -25.2%
10% -14.6% 31% -32.3%
15% -22.8% 31% -38.9%
20% -30.4% 31% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)16 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
New Zealand to win the second half? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-71%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-76%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 +$50 +318%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $21 +$66 +313%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 19 $46 −$44 -95%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $18 +$29 +164%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $19 +$41 +218%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$17 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 9m
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 9m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $11 2h
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $21 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Korea Republic to win the second half? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $18 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $19 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 7d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 2¢ $11 7d
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 7d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.10 · official $145.10 (match) · 45 history records