Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a26…e851 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-28%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$33
crypto 4% −$5
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 25% -43.1%
≤30d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 25% -43.1%
≤90d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 25% -43.1%
all 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 25% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 25% -43.1%
10% -47.0% 25% -48.5%
15% -52.1% 25% -53.5%
20% -56.8% 25% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$17 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 59m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $5 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.37 · official $22.37 (match) · 28 history records