Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a24…c07c world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 65L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$19
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$11
other 25% −$5
politics 18% +$12
sports 9% −$1
finance 1% +$22
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 27 +2.0% -7.7% 22% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 71 +1.1% -8.5% 31% 6% -9.3%
all 102 +0.3% -9.2% 36% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 65
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)102 / 108
History coverage454d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $93 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $147 −$2 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $138 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $230 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $121 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $122 −$11 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $126 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $278 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $132 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $119 +$4 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $22 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $265 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $54 +$4 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $27 −$4 -16%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 −$1 -19%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $68 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $93 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 3h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 22h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 22h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 22h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 22h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 22h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 26h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 26h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $95 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $61 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $104 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $104 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $0.00 · 483 history records