Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7A 0x7a24…a695 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-16%) realized −$120 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$149
sports 20% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 29% -26.3%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 29% -26.3%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 29% -26.3%
all 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 29% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 29% -26.3%
10% -18.1% 29% -33.3%
15% -26.0% 29% -39.8%
20% -33.2% 14% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$100 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.34 · official $99.34 (match) · 12 history records