Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a23…4aea world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-11%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$40
other 17% −$100
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +435.1% +384.1% 100% 100% +384.1%
≤30d 1 +435.1% +384.1% 100% 100% +384.1%
≤90d 1 +435.1% +384.1% 100% 100% +384.1%
all 14 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 43% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 43% -19.3%
10% -14.4% 36% -27.0%
15% -22.7% 36% -34.0%
20% -30.3% 21% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +435% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$37 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage454d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$22 +435%
Heat vs. Bulls Mar 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5 Mar 12 $2 +$2 +104%
49ers vs. Eagles Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 14 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 18 $100 +$113 +113%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jul 18 $100 +$40 +40%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? May 13 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
49ers vs. Eagles BUY Eagles 70¢ $2 155d
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 155d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Heat 69¢ $2 155d
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22? BUY No 13¢ $3 182d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 182d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $121 182d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? BUY No 79¢ $100 201d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 6¢ $3 230d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? BUY No 27¢ $50 248d
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? BUY No 28¢ $100 298d
Ukraine election called in 2025? SELL No 85¢ $140 331d
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July? BUY No 70¢ $100 359d
Ukraine election called in 2025? BUY No 61¢ $100 393d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? BUY No 94¢ $1 453d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 47¢ $100 453d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $4.67 (match) · 28 history records