Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a21…f1ba sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$284 (+71%) realized +$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$273
other 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +68.5%
≤30d 4 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +68.5%
≤90d 4 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +68.5%
all 4 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% +68.5%
10% -13.5% 50% +52.4%
15% -21.8% 50% +37.6%
20% -29.5% 50% +24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$27 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.02 per $1 lost it wins $6.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $63 +$54 +86%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $200 +$274 +137%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $37 −$36 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $19 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $116 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $474 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $200 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 9¢ $37 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 43¢ $37 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $26 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 35¢ $19 6h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $31 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.93 · official $80.88 (match) · 23 history records