Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a20…aba0 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,900per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$71
economics 35% −$1
tech 0% −$1
other 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.9% -27.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.6% 64% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 0% -9.5%
all 25 -6.5% -15.4% 76% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage191d
Avg bet$1,900
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $5,313 +$24 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $8,594 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $8,597 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8,602 −$10 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 2 May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 18? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +7%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of February? Mar 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $4,815 +$68 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $4,825 −$10 -0%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 7? Dec 18 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $689 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $323 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $459 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $459 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $459 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.84 · official $7.63 (match) · 135 history records