Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a1d…1278 other 109 markets active 19h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%37W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$17
other 31% $0
politics 15% −$13
sports 12% −$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 31 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 3% -9.8%
all 109 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses37 / 72
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage364d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $66 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $122 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $244 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $156 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $81 −$4 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $89 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $175 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $80 +$7 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $41 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $74 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $168 −$21 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $157 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $73 +$7 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $17 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $65 −$6 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $596 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $597 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $94 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $94 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $64 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $85 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $81 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $81 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $89 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $85 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $18 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $67 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $57 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $30 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $60 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $90 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records