Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a1c…cd07 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 22% −$8
culture 9% −$8
politics 8% −$5
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% +$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage126d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $435 +$1 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $476 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $338 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $385 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $328 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $324 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $243 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $121 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 16h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 22h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 23h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 25h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $65 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $65 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $65 42h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $65 44h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $66 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $66 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.40 · official $64.40 (match) · 1221 history records