Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a19…200c crypto 324 markets active 2d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%140W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$13
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$36
sports 4% −$5
other 4% −$2
weather 3% +$2
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -34.3% -40.6% 24% 17% -31.6%
≤30d 77 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 27% -16.9%
≤90d 207 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 26% -16.8%
all 324 -9.7% -18.3% 43% 29% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 29% -12.9%
10% -26.1% 19% -21.2%
15% -33.3% 13% -28.8%
20% -39.8% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses140 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)324 / 324
History coverage125d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 324 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$5 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 863 history records