Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a18…8cc9 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%169W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$3
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$42
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -0.4% -9.9% 77% 43% -9.9%
≤30d 231 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 42% -14.6%
≤90d 231 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 42% -14.6%
all 231 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 42% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 21% -22.8%
15% -29.1% 13% -30.3%
20% -36.0% 10% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses169 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 481 history records