Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a18…4be5 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$177 (-7%) realized −$163 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$234
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$149
crypto 9% −$100
other 1% −$14
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -77.8%
≤30d 61 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 61 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 33% -7.8%
all 61 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 33% -7.8%
10% -36.6% 30% -16.6%
15% -42.7% 28% -24.7%
20% -48.3% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 40
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage15d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stefan Posch: 2+ goals No 100¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-50%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $38 −$33 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $6 −$3 -54%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $18 −$17 -95%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 +$10 +105%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $139 −$55 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $22 −$15 -71%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $360 −$303 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $11 −$9 -84%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $229 +$224 +98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $123 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $195 +$196 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $225 −$220 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $205 +$162 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $11 +$8 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $44 −$34 -77%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $61 +$34 +56%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $94 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$16 +151%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $46 +$31 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $41 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$84 +163%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -34%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$7 +323%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$31 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 28m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 30m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 31m
Stefan Posch: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $1 41m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.82 (match) · 164 history records