Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a18…61a0 sports 483 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,572 (-3%) realized −$3,578 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%234W / 246L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$1,319est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$385
14 days+$185
30 days−$2,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$4,194
other 5% −$628
world 0% −$185
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -17.8% -25.6% 45% 39% -3.4%
≤30d 255 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 42% -17.1%
≤90d 480 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 46% -13.3%
all 480 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 46% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 46% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 38% -21.6%
15% -33.9% 27% -29.1%
20% -40.4% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$111 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$3,578
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses234 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,319
Open positions3
Markets (closed)480 / 483
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Alexis Galarneau 61¢ 66¢ $72 $77 +$5 (+7%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $274 +$108 +39%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $115 −$49 -42%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $85 −$10 -12%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $88 −$73 -83%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $245 +$48 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$39 +95%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $324 −$26 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $777 +$38 +5%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $121 +$53 +44%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$57 +56%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $148 −$33 -22%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $122 +$168 +137%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $679 +$20 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $182 +$104 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $253 −$252 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $52 +$8 +16%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $209 +$7 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $121 +$82 +67%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $101 +$84 +84%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $60 +$45 +75%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $513 +$105 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$71 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 −$13 -62%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $66 −$56 -85%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $343 −$8 -2%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $61 +$31 +52%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $223 −$161 -72%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $27 −$24 -91%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $251 +$50 +20%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $124 −$80 -65%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $11 +$11 +97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $403 +$136 +34%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $50 +$125 +249%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $116 +$82 +71%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Struff vs. Galarneau: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $72 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 15m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42m
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 8¢ $5 52m
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 33¢ $32 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 33¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 23¢ $4 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 15¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 9¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 5¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 6¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle SELL Elias Ymer 42¢ $75 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 12¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 12¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 19¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 92¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 29¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 29¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 29¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 29¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $10 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 28¢ $15 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 42¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 61¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 61¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 67¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 24¢ $10 4h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 31¢ $3 4h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 31¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $30 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.01 · official $188.01 (match) · 3500 history records