trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 65¢ | 56¢ | $82,986 | $70,710 | −$12,276 (-15%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | $1,778 | $1,654 | −$124 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1,290 | +$518 | +40% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? | Jun 10 | $1,012 | +$280 | +28% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | Jun 02 | $155 | −$155 | -100% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | Jun 02 | $19,985 | −$19,985 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 26 | $18,163 | +$20,281 | +112% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $9,220 | +$878 | +10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $29,669 | −$1,229 | -4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | May 23 | $102 | +$45 | +44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | May 23 | $51 | +$17 | +33% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Apr 25 | $46,099 | +$28,699 | +62% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 20 | $19,358 | +$7,521 | +39% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 16 | $42,915 | +$12,064 | +28% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | Apr 13 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $3,491 | +$5,492 | +157% |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $3,146 | −$2,681 | -85% |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $2,000 | −$1,974 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | Mar 28 | $17,730 | −$17,730 | -100% |
| Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election | May 01 | $1,831 | −$1,831 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Clippers | Apr 13 | $1,610 | −$1,610 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Suns | Feb 12 | $998 | +$612 | +61% |
| Super Bowl LIX Winner | Feb 10 | $2,490 | −$2,490 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Wizards | Feb 09 | $1,854 | +$636 | +34% |
| Spurs vs. Hornets | Feb 08 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Feb 08 | $2,601 | +$315 | +12% |
| Islanders vs. Jets | Feb 08 | $1,738 | +$116 | +7% |
| Predators vs. Blackhawks | Feb 08 | $1,588 | +$150 | +10% |
| Magic vs. Nuggets | Feb 07 | $1,028 | +$344 | +34% |
| Pacers vs. Jazz | Feb 06 | $4,352 | −$4,352 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Grizzlies | Feb 04 | $3,021 | +$1,331 | +44% |
| Pelicans vs. Nuggets | Feb 03 | $3,121 | −$99 | -3% |
| Grizzlies vs. Bucks | Feb 03 | $3,559 | +$4,662 | +131% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Feb 02 | $6,514 | −$306 | -5% |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 02 | $3,114 | +$634 | +20% |
| Lakers vs. Knicks | Feb 02 | $2,650 | +$465 | +18% |
| Kings vs. Thunder | Feb 02 | $2,196 | +$571 | +26% |
| Celtics vs. Pelicans | Feb 01 | $1,854 | +$341 | +18% |
| Lakers vs. Wizards | Jan 31 | $1,386 | +$469 | +34% |
| Pistons vs. Pacers | Jan 30 | $984 | +$402 | +41% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +33.9% | +21.1% | 100% | 100% | +21.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 67% | 56% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -2.1% | -11.5% | 59% | 53% | +3.9% |
| all | 38 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 63% | 55% | +1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -10.8% | 55% | +1.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -19.4% | 45% | -8.2% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 26% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 13% | -25.2% |