Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a15…df69 other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$4 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day258.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$19
sports 20% −$13
world 17% $0
politics 14% +$3
tech 10% −$6
finance 3% −$2
crypto 2% +$3
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% −$2
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -13.1% -21.4% 18% 12% -20.3%
≤30d 144 -13.1% -21.4% 18% 12% -20.3%
≤90d 144 -13.1% -21.4% 18% 12% -20.3%
all 144 -13.1% -21.4% 18% 12% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover258.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 12% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 9% -28.0%
15% -35.7% 7% -34.9%
20% -42.0% 6% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 118
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions122
Markets (closed)144 / 266
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day258.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 122 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 33¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 70¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? No 18¢ 33¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 34¢ 87¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 25¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+190%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? No 10¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 33¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 31¢ 15¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 30¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+140%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 92¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 66¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? No 74¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 60¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 70¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 15 $4 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -23%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +168%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $0 44m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $0 56m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 38¢ $0 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $0 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $0 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $1 2h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $1 2h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $0 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $0 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $0 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $0 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $0 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.95 · official $182.95 · 1726 history records