Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a11…bcdc sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$151 (-9%) realized −$159 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$158
14 days−$158
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$133
other 19% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 56% -20.1%
≤30d 18 -6.8% -15.7% 56% 56% -20.1%
≤90d 18 -6.8% -15.7% 56% 56% -20.1%
all 18 -6.8% -15.7% 56% 56% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 56% -20.1%
10% -23.7% 56% -27.7%
15% -31.1% 50% -34.7%
20% -37.9% 50% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$84 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage22d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $37 $57 +$20 (+53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $33 +$28 +86%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $67 +$43 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 −$102 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 +$45 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $134 −$132 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $103 +$61 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 +$41 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $69 +$51 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $143 +$97 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $134 +$45 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 03 $55 −$54 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $63 +$40 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $67 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $67 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $33 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $104 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $65 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $154 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $134 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $54 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $51 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $69 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $46 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $78 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $66 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $67 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $63 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $67 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $103 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $55 14d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $1 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $62 20d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.33 · official $161.33 (match) · 43 history records