Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a10…9977
world · 621 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$85 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$183
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses258 / 328
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions35
Markets (closed)586 / 621
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 35 History 586 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$39
14 days−$40
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 47¢ 65¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+39%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 40¢ 42¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 74¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 80¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 81¢ 85¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 10¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 57¢ 73¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 85¢ 83¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 65¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 63¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 22¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 15¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $14 −$5 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $23 −$13 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $7 +$2 +24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $24 −$2 -10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +51%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Jun 07 $5 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $43 −$4 -9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$5 +37%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $7 −$1 -16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +22%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$3 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$2 +6%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? May 30 $6 −$1 -18%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $8 +$3 +35%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $8 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $139 −$4 -3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 27 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $5 +$10 +203%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$69
other 20% +$36
sports 11% +$31
politics 8% −$30
culture 4% −$15
tech 2% +$14
crypto 1% −$6
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% −$14
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 23m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 24m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 69¢ $3 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 31¢ $1 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 34¢ $2 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 41¢ $4 16h
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 20h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 21h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 82¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 66¢ $3 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $5 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 29h
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $4 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $4 38h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 89¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 83¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 83¢ $4 2d
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 2d
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 19% -23.5%
≤30d 197 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 31% -10.6%
≤90d 586 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 27% -8.4%
all 586 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 27% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 27% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 20% -17.2%
15% -29.0% 16% -25.2%
20% -36.0% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.61 · official $182.35 (match) · 3500 history records