Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a0f…1305 sports 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31,633 (-3%) realized −$30,590 · open −$1,043
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%250W / 438L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,476per market
Trades / day83.9pace
Fees−$9,730est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8,647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$54,193
other 3% +$3,916
world 0% −$1,221
crypto 0% −$957
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -83.3% -84.9% 9% 9% -77.2%
≤30d 586 -49.1% -53.9% 32% 31% -41.3%
≤90d 688 -42.9% -48.3% 36% 35% -38.1%
all 688 -42.9% -48.3% 36% 35% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.3% 35% -38.1%
10% -53.2% 32% -44.0%
15% ← realistic here -57.8% 24% -49.4%
20% -61.9% 15% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,911) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,267 vs −$1,821 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$8,647
Realized−$30,590
Unrealized−$1,043
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses250 / 438
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$9,730
Open positions10
Markets (closed)688 / 390
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$2,476
Trades / day83.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,700 $1,845 +$145 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1,690 $1,335 −$355 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $870 $1,115 +$245 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,120 $1,045 −$75 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,000 $1,035 +$35 (+3%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 66¢ $989 $800 −$189 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $890 $665 −$225 (-25%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 92¢ 46¢ $1,221 $604 −$617 (-51%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) T1 86¢ 87¢ $184 $186 +$2 (+1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $26 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $777 −$777 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,463 −$1,463 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $827 −$827 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $3,042 −$3,042 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5) Jun 17 $859 −$859 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,484 −$2,484 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,295 −$1,295 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jun 17 $5,318 −$5,318 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,872 −$1,872 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $6,217 −$6,217 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $798 −$798 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,441 −$3,441 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $817 −$1,214 -149%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $971 −$971 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $414 −$414 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,055 −$3,055 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,358 −$1,358 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 17 $444 −$444 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs DRX (+2.5) Jun 17 $287 −$287 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 17 $1,848 −$1,848 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $444 −$444 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,685 −$2,203 -131%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,213 −$1,213 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $996 −$996 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $644 −$1,530 -238%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,977 −$2,276 -115%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $2,287 −$2,287 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,405 −$1,405 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) Jun 17 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,197 −$1,197 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $2,394 −$2,394 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,611 −$2,611 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $420 −$420 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $2,754 −$2,754 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $547 −$547 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 17 $405 −$405 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $1,848 −$1,848 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,523 −$1,523 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $832 −$4,223 -508%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $961 −$1,122 -117%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,224 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 33¢ $453 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 35¢ $453 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 33¢ $453 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 86¢ $135 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 86¢ $49 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $450 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $648 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $449 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $779 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $451 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $781 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,233 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $794 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,238 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $791 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,237 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,239 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $78 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,242 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $523 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,234 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $781 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 55¢ $675 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $2,235 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 57¢ $111 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 57¢ $3 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 57¢ $3 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 57¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,646.76 · official $10,422.76 · 3500 history records