Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a0e…10b2 crypto 1441 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$16,431 (-57%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%1183W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$129
14 days+$80
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 674 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 1441 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 20% -9.7%
all 1441 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 20% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 20% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 11% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1183 / 258
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1441 / 1441
History coverage54d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $57 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $58 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$34 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $58 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $57 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records