Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a0d…4c8d crypto 1172 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,298 (-13%) realized −$1,265 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%445W / 717L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$185
14 days−$3,090
30 days−$1,595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,704
sports 2% +$119
other 2% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -12.2% -20.6% 32% 32% -18.7%
≤30d 1157 -13.2% -21.4% 38% 35% -24.0%
≤90d 1162 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 35% -24.1%
all 1162 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 35% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 35% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 31% -31.3%
15% -35.7% 27% -38.0%
20% -42.0% 24% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,265
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses445 / 717
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1162 / 1172
History coverage44d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 22¢ 50¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+130%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 19¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 30¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +87%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +223%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +257%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -56%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +142%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$5 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$3 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 43m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 30¢ $1 47m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 30¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 22¢ $2 58m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 22¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 10¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 2765 history records