Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a0d…760d politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 40% −$14
crypto 5% −$1
sports 3% +$10
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 4% -9.5%
all 132 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage116d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $208 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $371 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $418 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $388 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $408 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $402 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $169 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $332 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $376 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $377 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $218 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $331 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $174 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 3h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 29h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $195 22d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 26d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $183 26d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $183 27d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 27d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $165 30d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $165 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 31d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.00 · official $26.00 (match) · 404 history records