Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a09…4965 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$9
other 31% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 30% 20% -12.8%
≤30d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 30% 20% -12.8%
≤90d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 30% 20% -12.8%
all 10 +2.8% -7.0% 30% 20% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 20% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 20% -21.1%
15% -24.0% 10% -28.7%
20% -31.4% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 +$69 +431%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $185 +$14 +8%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -21%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $26 +$7 +27%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $18 −$3 -14%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $72 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $86 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 98¢ $5 15h
First Blood in Game 2? SELL Nigma Galaxy 80¢ $5 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 94¢ $49 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 97¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 97¢ $39 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $38 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 93¢ $38 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 87¢ $19 15h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $6 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $25 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $10 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 49¢ $10 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $15 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 57¢ $15 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 66¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 64¢ $18 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 67¢ $18 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $9 20h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 43¢ $11 20h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $75 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $70 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 97¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL AM Gaming $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.09 · official $82.09 (match) · 37 history records