Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7A 0x7a06…9b0d crypto 971 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,459 (+7%) realized +$1,489 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%504W / 466L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$46
14 days−$70
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$242
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 45% -12.5%
≤30d 432 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 46% -11.1%
≤90d 970 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 47% -9.0%
all 970 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 41% -17.7%
15% -28.1% 33% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1,489
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses504 / 466
Open positions1
Markets (closed)970 / 971
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $39 $9 −$30 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$8 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$15 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$24 +103%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$20 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$9 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.60 · official $8.60 (match) · 3500 history records