Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a03…a455 crypto 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,828 (+8%) realized +$1,679 · open +$1,149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 58L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$155
14 days−$155
30 days+$2,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$3,124
crypto 25% −$866
tech 6% +$467
other 6% +$665
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.6% -34.5% 31% 31% -16.0%
≤30d 104 +7.6% -2.7% 49% 44% +0.1%
≤90d 109 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 45% +0.0%
all 117 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 44% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 44% -3.9%
10% -14.4% 38% -13.1%
15% -22.7% 31% -21.5%
20% -30.2% 24% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$125 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$2,038
Realized+$1,679
Unrealized+$1,149
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage238d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 100¢ $367 $1,019 +$652 (+178%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $397 $1,018 +$621 (+156%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 13¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $40 +$75 +187%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $306 −$168 -55%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $116 −$113 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $216 +$106 +49%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $198 +$71 +36%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $220 +$280 +127%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $76 −$42 -55%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $245 +$254 +104%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $215 −$77 -36%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 26 $189 −$189 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $339 +$367 +108%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,710 +$290 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $331 +$227 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,423 +$295 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,692 +$156 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $104 −$36 -35%
Foggia: Darya Astakhova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 03 $308 −$280 -91%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $227 +$281 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $648 +$352 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $153 +$39 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$27 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $95 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $157 −$99 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $297 +$61 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $205 −$17 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $516 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 02 $206 +$139 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $311 +$321 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $605 −$324 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $104 +$42 +40%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $208 +$142 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $127 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $374 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $405 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $29 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $92 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $322 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $269 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $198 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $216 6h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $207 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 27h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $35 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,037.67 · official $2,037.67 (match) · 654 history records