Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a03…8fea
weather · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$64 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)79 / 89
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 10 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +186%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$3 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$8 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$14 +316%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +65%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Julio Tavares record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2 $0 -16%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% −$61
other 16% −$6
sports 14% +$7
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 40h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 55¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 40h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -41.6% -47.2% 19% 19% -39.1%
≤30d 79 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 29% -31.1%
≤90d 79 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 29% -31.1%
all 79 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 29% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 29% -31.1%
10% -38.9% 22% -37.7%
15% -44.8% 20% -43.7%
20% -50.2% 16% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.33 (match) · 237 history records